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Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Cheshire Cat on 16.02.12 8:37

Until I saw Pats photograph I always imagined that Madeleines window and the parking lot were completely out of public view. I imagined a dusty and dark carpark on the edge of the resort, I did not picture that there were appartments directly accross the street with windows overlooking the car park. I have to say that Pat Brown's report has enlightened me and I am sure there are more suprises to come.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by david_uk on 16.02.12 8:43

she promised a new blog yesterday!! where is it!! come on Pat!!

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Daisy on 16.02.12 9:17

@aiyoyo wrote:
@Daisy wrote:Thanks for being a voice of reason aiyoyo. The reason I'm on my final warning is because I dared to say I thought Stella was rude & unfair to Cheshire Cat by saying the following:

Quote Stella: "Cheshire Cat, you just continue to make yourself look a right idiot. Have you come up with one photo yet from 2007? No."

I won't quote the PM but for speaking my mind I'm told I'm on my final warning and "Next time round, your out of here for good." If that's the case what's the point of being a member here, i'm sick to death of this treatment it's being going on for weeks now! (& I know i'm not the only one at the receiving end) I had hoped by now I had proven that I'm not a troll but sadly Stella still believes i'm here to cause trouble & disrupt things.

You are right, all this does is make us look foolish - a laughing stock. They're loving Stella over at JATYK2 right now.

Daisy
From an objective viewpoint, which is my stand always, with due respect to you as well, there is also no need to rub salt in on Stella or inflame a situation best put to bed.
As for the troll issue - no comment. Usually, time will ultimately flash them up.

BTW, who gives a shit what those sickos at the vile site think? I don't!
It's what I think of them that they have to worry about! Far as I am concerned that "diseased blog in question" is best fla
shed down the toilet.

I take onboard what you say aiyoyo. Yesterday was not a good day for me and feelings & emotions were running high.

And on the subject of the vile sicko's, yeah you're right.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Daisy on 16.02.12 9:27

@Ross wrote:With respect to the posters here, there has been a pretty pointless argument in this thread. Saying 'I think the window could be seen' or 'I think the window couldn't be seen' has no bearing on the reality of the location. From our detached abstracted viewpoint we simply do not have the data to be able to make a conclusion. There are a number of such data points: the distance between the window and the trees; the height of the trees; the precise location of each tree and the gaps between them vis a vis any overlooking window; the distance to the overlooking apartment block; the height of each overlooking balcony allowing for topography.

As Pat Brown is on the scene she will be able to collect most of those details precisely and will no doubt inform us all when she has done so. In the meantime arguing the toss over speculation is a waste of time.

Apart from Pat's reports we have the statement of the former resident in 5A - Saleigh Gordon. Her family left 5A the day the McCann's moved in. Her child slept in the very bedroom Madeleine reportedly disappeared from and this lady claims the bedroom was "overlooked by other apartments". I don't see any reason for her to lie. So my conclusions are not based on Pat's reports alone. But like Cheshire cat, up until recently (Pat's blog) I had no idea how exposed this area was.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Nina on 16.02.12 9:54

Photographs are a good source of information, but they are static. We cannot from all the tree based photos see the breeze/wind blowing through the feathery leaves of those very trees, I think they are Jacaranda. We cannot turn slightly to left or right or bob down to look. Pat can, she is there and she will be looking all the time at things we would very likely would not notice because that is her gift, her profession.

Trees or no trees, 5A was on the corner of two roads in a built up area of the town, so maybe quiet as it was early May but one just never knows when one will bump into holiday makers or residents if on foot.

JT saw, she says, a man carrying a child wearing frilled bottomed pyjamas. No one else reports having seen this man in this road. The Smith group saw a man carrying a pale skinned child, this time one of the group remember that there were buttons on the trouser leg of the carrier. No one else reports having seen this man in this area.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Guest on 16.02.12 10:22

@Nina wrote:

JT saw, she says, a man carrying a child wearing frilled bottomed pyjamas. No one else reports having seen this man in this road. The Smith group saw a man carrying a pale skinned child, this time one of the group remember that there were buttons on the trouser leg of the carrier. No one else reports having seen this man in this area.

button trousers similar to this perhaps?

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by aiyoyo on 16.02.12 10:32

@Nina wrote:Photographs are a good source of information, but they are static. We cannot from all the tree based photos see the breeze/wind blowing through the feathery leaves of those very trees, I think they are Jacaranda. We cannot turn slightly to left or right or bob down to look. Pat can, she is there and she will be looking all the time at things we would very likely would not notice because that is her gift, her profession.

Trees or no trees, 5A was on the corner of two roads in a built up area of the town, so maybe quiet as it was early May but one just never knows when one will bump into holiday makers or residents if on foot.

The ironic of 5a facing two roads would mean an abductor would run a higher risk of been seen.
Even in low tourists season there's still human traffic. The roads exist also for access by other than holiday makers, say resort's employees and local residents who may also use the car park when they dine at the Complex.
Pat Brown made a salient point when she said the type of holiday resort and in particular the positioning of 5a is too exposed and not a place an abductor would target.



JT saw, she says, a man carrying a child wearing frilled bottomed pyjamas. No one else reports having seen this man in this road. The Smith group saw a man carrying a pale skinned child, this time one of the group remember that there were buttons on the trouser leg of the carrier. No one else reports having seen this man in this area.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by david_uk on 16.02.12 11:35

Stewie wrote:
@Nina wrote:

JT saw, she says, a man carrying a child wearing frilled bottomed pyjamas. No one else reports having seen this man in this road. The Smith group saw a man carrying a pale skinned child, this time one of the group remember that there were buttons on the trouser leg of the carrier. No one else reports having seen this man in this area.

button trousers similar to this perhaps?



how on earth are they not in jail!!

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Open Mind V Closed Mind

Post by Cheshire Cat on 16.02.12 12:38

My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by aiyoyo on 16.02.12 13:44

@Cheshire Cat wrote:My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

Not every one shares your view. I, for one,dont share it. Whatever it be, the MET cant look at only one theory and still be objective.

Having confident in Pat Brown's work is all very well. I also salute her for her work and for being gutsy, nonetheless, it may be a blessing in disguise the UK Press are not giving her coverage as overexposure of mccanns news especially against their abduction theory, risks jeopardizing the trial. I've no doubt the mccanns will capitalize on it if it comes to that.

Moreover, from a legal viewpoint, Pat's work wont cause the matter to progress any where as it is not officially recognised unless she works in official capacity with the MET or Portugal Police. Should she find Maddie's remains or stumble across something irrefutable that the Police are obliged to look at, then that may be a different matter altogether.

Apart from making interesting read to laymen, profiling of a case serves no value to the investigation or review unless taken into considerations by law enforcers. AMHO as usual FWIW.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by jd on 16.02.12 13:56

Moreover, from a legal viewpoint, Pat's work wont cause the matter to progress any where as it is not officially recognised unless she works in official capacity with the MET or Portugal Police

Aiyoyo I believe this will depend on what Pat discovers and also she has been meeting GA too. She may find enough to have the case reopened fingers crossed

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by tiny on 16.02.12 13:58

@Cheshire Cat wrote:My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

my thoughts as well. to be honest this case should have been done and dusted long ago.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by annabel on 16.02.12 14:06


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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Guest on 16.02.12 16:17

@annabel wrote:

Looks like something out of Terminator 2!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eajuMYNYtuY

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Cheshire Cat on 17.02.12 9:51

Pat has tweeted that she is "Busy busy busy" hence lack of blogging. Good!!!

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Me on 17.02.12 12:04

@tiny wrote:
@Cheshire Cat wrote:My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

my thoughts as well. to be honest this case should have been done and dusted long ago.

On what basis and on what evidence are you drawing the conclusion that SY are working to an abduction theory given they have released no statements regarding the direction of the review?

____________________
What is certain is that since the start of the investigation there were  incongruent and even contradictory situations concerning the witness statements; the telephone records of calls that were made and received on mobile phones that belonged to the couple and to the group of friends that were on holidays with them; the movements of people right after the disappearance of the little girl was noticed, concerning the state in which the bedroom from where the child disappeared from was found (closed window? open window? partially open window?) etc., and the mystery would only become even thicker due to the clues that were left by the already mentioned sniffer dogs. - The Words of a JUDGE in relation to the McCanns

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Cheshire Cat on 17.02.12 12:58

@Me wrote:
@tiny wrote:
@Cheshire Cat wrote:My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

my thoughts as well. to be honest this case should have been done and dusted long ago.

On what basis and on what evidence are you drawing the conclusion that SY are working to an abduction theory given they have released no statements regarding the direction of the review?

Hi Me, see http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t4145-operation-grange-remit and the statement regarding "as if the abduction occurred in the UK". That is enough to persuade me and others (including Tony Bennett) that SY appear to be working on the abduction theory. Others may disagree but for me that is sufficient to convince me that this is the way the review is heading. Of course, we live in rapidly changing times and I wonder what would happen if the the SY teams investigating "sustained criminality" at News International were to uncover evidence of such criminal activity in relation to the Maddie case?

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Guest on 17.02.12 13:12

I have faith in our police, not all are bad uns. SY cannot afford any more mistakes, imagine if anything was covered up/whitewashed etc., and if something came out later(which in time it always does), what outrage that would cause, especially whilst this is going on whilst the Leveson inquiry is sitting. How would that look. One thing that does not sit right however is how did a photographer manage to be present when they went to Metodo 3 offices to sieze/take away those boxes. We had a lovely picture in our papers of them striding holding these boxes. Who gave the photographer this info that they were going to be there at that time. Did this happen at all?


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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Cheshire Cat on 17.02.12 13:28

candyfloss wrote:I have faith in our police, not all are bad uns. SY cannot afford any more mistakes, imagine if anything was covered up/whitewashed etc., and if something came out later(which in time it always does), what outrage that would cause, especially whilst this is going on whilst the Leveson inquiry is sitting. How would that look. One thing that does not sit right however is how did a photographer manage to be present when they went to Metodo 3 offices to sieze/take away those boxes. We had a lovely picture in our papers of them striding holding these boxes. Who gave the photographer this info that they were going to be there at that time. Did this happen at all?

I agree Candyfloss, I have faith in our Police but like all organisations there will be bad uns and anyone who works in the public sector knows that there are "Political Decisions" that override value for money / commonsense etc.

However, since the review was announced, a lot of water has gone under the bridge including the departure of Coulson who accompanied the McCanns to see Cameron before he took office. And now we see No10 defending the Met from criticism from the Sun, and the Met talking about "sustained criminality" at News International!! Incredible !!

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by tiny on 17.02.12 13:36

on the basis it is nearly 5 years since Madeleine vanished,the leicester police have all the info on this case and were supposedly helping the pj,but forgot to send the gaspars statement till after the mccanns and tapas left portugal so can you really see sy coming up with any thing but a phantom abductor for fear of showing how inept or corrupt the leistershire police are.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by aiyoyo on 17.02.12 16:47

@Cheshire Cat wrote:
@Me wrote:
@tiny wrote:
@Cheshire Cat wrote:My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

my thoughts as well. to be honest this case should have been done and dusted long ago.

On what basis and on what evidence are you drawing the conclusion that SY are working to an abduction theory given they have released no statements regarding the direction of the review?

Hi Me, see http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t4145-operation-grange-remit and the statement regarding "as if the abduction occurred in the UK". That is enough to persuade me and others (including Tony Bennett) that SY appear to be working on the abduction theory. Others may disagree but for me that is sufficient to convince me that this is the way the review is heading. Of course, we live in rapidly changing times and I wonder what would happen if the the SY teams investigating "sustained criminality" at News International were to uncover evidence of such criminal activity in relation to the Maddie case?

Does any one else see the difference between " as if it is an abduction" and "as if the abduction[i] occurred {/i]in the UK" To me, the latter would suggest that the Yard are saying they would be analyzing and determining the data no differently from a reported abduction that took place in UK. In other words, they are treating the abduction as having taken place in UK and they in charge of it, where processing, analyzing, and determining of the evidence come under their remit to do as they would within their ability, skills and competence, adhering at the same time to UK procedures and methodologies to solve the crime.

They also state in their remit " they hope to use new approaches to progress the matter". Now, how do one use new approaches to progress the abduction theory when there was no evidence to support an abduction happened? That is one thing.

Another thing, for debates sake on Cheshire Cat's point that the Yard's challenge is to develop a "watertight abduction theory", now apart from glaring question as to why the Yard would want to challenge themselves in that aspect on a handsome sum of taxpayers money, when the mccanns had sold it to the public, can people share their thoughts on how the Yard hope to develop a "watertight abduction theory"?

More importantly why would they do that?
Why would they need more to deploy over 30-member murder squad detectives plus more cold case experts to do something contradictory?
What about the Portuguese side who retains prime primacy over the case - how do they take that out of the equation and render their "watertight abduction theory" legally valid and their conclusion binding under the Portugal's jurisdiction as well?

How to make it "tight" when it's "loose" theory, without an iota of evidence to support it?
What would the Yard have to do to make it "watertight" - turn the screw where - in which aspect? No official leads so far, no credible sightings, no credible PIs work or follow up, no trace of the abductor - gender of the abductor uncertain - no trace of anything at all, zilch zero nothing. No one saw or heard anything if we discount Janey's bogus man and smithy's sighting alleged to be Gerry.
What would Yard summation be when they have to report to the public about their "watertight abduction theory" if it were that?

On the other side of the coin, can people also share their thoughts whether the developing of a "watertight homicide" case is possible based on existing evidence data and no new data. And if there should be new info to render it "watertight" what should the Yard be doing to progress this to a "watertight prosecutable homicide" and take it to trial?

Lastly can a non event or fake case be developed into a "watertight" anything? Or is "watertight" rightfully apply to only activities or happenings having already occurred whereby the power-of-the-day abuse their power to keep a tight lid on it, and hope it wont see light of day, not even after the common belief 70-year tenure.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by aiyoyo on 17.02.12 17:23

Jean wrote:
@annabel wrote:

Looks like something out of Terminator 2!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eajuMYNYtuY

Crime fiction "Post an abductor through a Window" - starring Mccanspin and Mccansue.
"PG"
One fixed price. No child, student, or pensioner discount. No week-day rate.
Money collections from tickets will go to Mccancon's Fund, to aid their lawyers' search in the internet world for their missing daughter, Madeleine.

Message from Messrs MccanSpin and MccanSue:
Please, Please, come and support us, Madeleine is still out there. She needs to be with her family.


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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by Me on 17.02.12 17:28

@Cheshire Cat wrote:
@Me wrote:
@tiny wrote:
@Cheshire Cat wrote:My view of the SY remit is that the Metropolitan Police are treating the disappance of Madeleine McCann as an abduction. Any theory will be considered, as long as it is based on the assumption of 'stranger abduction'. Given this I expect the real challenge for SY is to develop a watertight abduction theory.

In this respect, I would expect them to agree with Pat Browns analysis on her blog, that the front window of the appartment would be an unlikely escape route for an 'abductor'. If Scotland Yard can come up with a plausible abduction theory as opposed to one that is full of holes then perhaps this will be used to shield the McCann's and Tapas in the future? This is, of course, based on the assumption that Maddie was abducted and all other contradictory evidence is excluded.

Where Pat Brown is different is that she has an open mind and is not afraid to go where the Met fear to tread!

my thoughts as well. to be honest this case should have been done and dusted long ago.

On what basis and on what evidence are you drawing the conclusion that SY are working to an abduction theory given they have released no statements regarding the direction of the review?

Hi Me, see http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t4145-operation-grange-remit and the statement regarding "as if the abduction occurred in the UK". That is enough to persuade me and others (including Tony Bennett) that SY appear to be working on the abduction theory. Others may disagree but for me that is sufficient to convince me that this is the way the review is heading. Of course, we live in rapidly changing times and I wonder what would happen if the the SY teams investigating "sustained criminality" at News International were to uncover evidence of such criminal activity in relation to the Maddie case?

Hi.

I personally wouldn't worry unduly about that one word. Simply becuase there is enough wiggle room to argue that she was indeed abducted from her bed / apartment by members of her own family.

When we hear the word abduction we automatically assume it must be one or several of the various comedy characters put forward by the Team. But it doesn't automatically follow that SY believe it was a stranger who abducted her.

She has been taken by someone, either alive or dead, so technically abduction is a valid choice of word.

The issue is whether she was taken by a stranger or someone closer to her and if she was taken dead or alive.

If SY conclude it was a stranger abduction then clearly they need to present their evidence to support that hypothesis. If there is none, and the released PJ files show that particular cupboard is bare, then they will become a laughing stock.

If there is evidence to support stranger abduction you can bet the Team will leak it to the world's media, so we can see what they're basing their conclusions on and if there is any validity to it.

____________________
What is certain is that since the start of the investigation there were  incongruent and even contradictory situations concerning the witness statements; the telephone records of calls that were made and received on mobile phones that belonged to the couple and to the group of friends that were on holidays with them; the movements of people right after the disappearance of the little girl was noticed, concerning the state in which the bedroom from where the child disappeared from was found (closed window? open window? partially open window?) etc., and the mystery would only become even thicker due to the clues that were left by the already mentioned sniffer dogs. - The Words of a JUDGE in relation to the McCanns

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Bottox

Post by applecrumble on 18.02.12 18:17

This is all bottox. This Pat Brown is an attention seeker. She is all mouth and no substance. Now she has some pretty PdL pics to add to her next e-pamphlet. It is a money-spinning exercise but now she will state that her poorly researched ‘research’ is backed up by Goncalo Amaral, Tony Bennett and the two large canines, yes the dogs that are never wrong type canines.

It would be laughable if it were not about a missing little British child and Pat Brown is laughing her socks off as evidenced by her stupid role play sitting in Ocean Club 5 years after a crime. What was wrong with taking a vacation to Pdl 5 years ago and at the same time do some sleuthing in readiness for a couple of books for the American market, speaking of which, are the Americans really interested in a missing Brit, really? They turned a blind eye to one of their own, Ms Dugard. (plus many others)

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

Post by applecrumble on 18.02.12 18:20

Oh and ME - Your ridiculous By-line.

Please name the JUDGE concerned. Because you have quoted Amaral's plea in court. Anybody can plead anything in their testimony in court. You can read out the Bible in your closing speech at any trial. You have not noted the Judge's summing up. Nobody will take you seriously when you quote lies. Where is the Judge's summing up?

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