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Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

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Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by DCB1 on 07.01.10 14:50

Some posters are asking how the search to the underground lair within 10 miles of PDL is going. Some posters even suggest that the mccanns should have searched this area when they went back to PDL recently.

Edgar said 10 miles from PDL. This would create a circle of 10 miles radius.

Using our old friend Pi, the area of this circle would be 3.14 x 10 x 10 = 314 square miles.

Because PDL is on the coast it can be assumed that half the area would be in the sea - so half the area = 157 square miles on land.

This is the search area.

To put this into perspective - imagine a strip of land one mile wide, from London to Cardiff. Include in that strip, scrub land, farmland, bushes, trees, villages and towns.

That is the area that Edgar is referring to.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Guest on 07.01.10 14:54

And many walled and secured Villas.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by vaguely on 07.01.10 14:55

thank you DCB - that puts it in to perspective a bit.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Guest on 07.01.10 15:09

Yes and Edgar ought to have covered it all on foot, with no help from the PJ.- by now don't you know?

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Ruby on 07.01.10 16:59

I'm sure real police would help but for some reason they aren't being asked.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Guest on 07.01.10 17:00

@Ruby wrote:I'm sure real police would help but for some reason they aren't being asked.

Because the case is either archived, or closed if you speak to some.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Ruby on 07.01.10 17:03

Archived, not closed.

Don't ask, don't want.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Guest on 07.01.10 17:04

Trouble is when people phone the PJ up with info they are told it is closed, and that she is dead.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by vaguely on 07.01.10 17:20

RR< do you have any link to where this is being discussed. I have never heard about this.

ty.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by DCB1 on 07.01.10 17:22

@rockyrobin wrote:Trouble is when people phone the PJ up with info they are told it is closed, and that she is dead.

That's a very bold statement to make.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Autumn on 07.01.10 17:23

Strange that the McCanns have never mentioned once that they believe her to be held in an underground lair near PDL - one can only assume that either they dont believe Dave or they know for sure that she isnt there.
Even the most loyal McCann fan must acknowledge that, if they truly believed Dave Edgar, they would use some of the Funds to search every bit of area with a fine tooth comb within that 10 mile radius.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Guest on 07.01.10 17:26

@Autumn wrote:Strange that the McCanns have never mentioned once that they believe her to be held in an underground lair near PDL - one can only assume that either they dont believe Dave or they know for sure that she isnt there.
Even the most loyal McCann fan must acknowledge that, if they truly believed Dave Edgar, they would use some of the Funds to search every bit of area with a fine tooth comb within that 10 mile radius.

Think you will find it was mentioned the first time Gerry went to Portugal. He spoke of his frustrations and also it was in the papers. Not reached that part of Nuthall yet?

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by vaguely on 07.01.10 17:27

I think it's toothed.

Just before Mr Bennett gets here.


ETA, oh my bad, can be either. You're safe.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Autumn on 07.01.10 17:34

@rockyrobin wrote:
@Autumn wrote:Strange that the McCanns have never mentioned once that they believe her to be held in an underground lair near PDL - one can only assume that either they dont believe Dave or they know for sure that she isnt there.
Even the most loyal McCann fan must acknowledge that, if they truly believed Dave Edgar, they would use some of the Funds to search every bit of area with a fine tooth comb within that 10 mile radius.

Think you will find it was mentioned the first time Gerry went to Portugal. He spoke of his frustrations and also it was in the papers. Not reached that part of Nuthall yet?

Have you got a link please?

Why the sarcy comments RR? DCB started this thread and I have responded in a reasonable manner - you do him no favours by behaving like a petulant child.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Finally on 07.01.10 17:35

Hi
Thank you DCB for a nice visual of the area, it makes us more measurement challenged folk appreciate how big an area it actually is.

Even though it is a big area wouldn't it make sense maybe to use some of the fund money to employ men and maybe bulldozers, or whatever machinery would be needed, to begin searching there? It can't be impossible surely and would go some way to actually finding the little girl if Mr Edgar's thoughts are correct?

Take care

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by DCB1 on 07.01.10 17:36

Logistics.

Lets say that a line of searchers spread 5 yards apart are employed to search.

1760/5 = 352 people

Lets say that they can search open ground at what, 2 miles per hour?

157/2 = 78.5 hours

352 x 78.5 = 27632 hours

National minimum wage is £5.80 per hour

27632 x £5.80 = £160,265

So yes - the fund certainly had that money to carry out the search.

However - that is a bare calculation based on open ground.

Take into account the villages and towns in the 10 mile radius and the practicality of getting into every single building - what have you got?

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by vaguely on 07.01.10 17:39

Plus if you're talking about a live child it's unlikely that anybody is going to sit tight knowing a search is progressing towards them.

Is there not some statistic on the geographical distance someone is likely to be held from where they were taken? Surely if it was as simple as searching nobody would ever remain missing.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by DCB1 on 07.01.10 17:42

Personally I think Edgar was stupid to suggest it in the way that he did.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by vaguely on 07.01.10 17:42

yup. he's a strange sort.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Finally on 07.01.10 17:44

Cor blimey, 352 people?

Why are the most practical things to do sometimes the most difficult?

Thanks for putting it into perpsective - I am a bit naff at visualising distances as my poor car finds out on ocassions much to my husband's despair. big grin

Take care

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by DCB1 on 07.01.10 17:49

Lagos - with a population of 18,000 is within 10 miles of PDL

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by aiyoyo on 07.01.10 18:32

Surely Edgar was paid that kind of money to be specific .

A stupid idea of 157 square miles area wide is useless.

Why didnt the mccanns sack him for incompetent!

Actually 352 people is not a lot. If the mccanns were determined and involved the police to get mobilising, then village volunteers would easily surpass that number. Plenty villagers would do it for nothing simply becuase no one wants to live with a criminal in their corner.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Guest on 07.01.10 18:33

A lot of the villagers rely on Petty theft to supplement their income.

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by DCB1 on 07.01.10 18:36

@rockyrobin wrote:A lot of the villagers rely on Petty theft to supplement their income.

Near where you live or any other particular place in mind?

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Re: Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

Post by Autumn on 07.01.10 18:51

@DCB1 wrote:Personally I think Edgar was stupid to suggest it in the way that he did.

Incompentent rather than stupid but yes, you have to wonder why he gave interviews to the press if he seriously believed Madeleine to be held in that region. Why not conduct a thorough search, paid for out of the Fund, before going to the press? Had she been held in captivity surely, following Edgar's public interviews, anyone would have to be insane not to move her somewhere else or kill her.

So why are the McCanns retaining Dave Edgar - what is his real purpose?

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