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*** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

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How will you vote in the E.U. Referendum?

18% 18% 
[ 47 ]
79% 79% 
[ 209 ]
3% 3% 
[ 7 ]
0% 0% 
[ 3 ]
 
Total Votes : 266

Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by BlueBag on Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:12 am

What is the referendum question?

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by skyrocket on Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:17 am

@Bluebag

What will the referendum question be?

The question is always crucial in any referendum. The Electoral Commission proposed the wording, which has been accepted by MPs: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" The options for voters will be 'Remain a member of the European Union' and 'Leave the European Union'Read more: Does the wording of a referendum question matter?

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by BlueBag on Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:36 pm

@skyrocket wrote:@Bluebag

What will the referendum question be?



The question is always crucial in any referendum. The Electoral Commission proposed the wording, which has been accepted by MPs: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" The options for voters will be 'Remain a member of the European Union' and 'Leave the European Union'Read more: Does the wording of a referendum question matter?

I'd like to leave the political union, restore full sovereignty, but maintain some kind of trading relationship.

Which was the original deal back in the 70s.

Failing that I'm "leave".

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by BlueBag on Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:55 pm

David Cameron didn't call a referendum he thinks he'll lose.

By hook or by crook.

Crook.

I would think.

Nigel is keeping his powder dry.

Let's hope he makes it a REAL debate in the week leading up to it because that's the only time that counts - this is all nonsense with nonsense polls so far.

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Tony Bennett on Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:07 pm

@skyrocket wrote:@Bluebag

What will the referendum question be?





The question is always crucial in any referendum. The Electoral Commission proposed the wording, which has been accepted by MPs: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" The options for voters will be 'Remain a member of the European Union' and 'Leave the European Union'Read more: Does the wording of a referendum question matter?

The Electoral Commission website informs us that the EU Referendum question was settled by Parliament on 7 September 2015 as follows:

QUOTE

Should the United Kingdom remain in the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain in the European Union

Leave the European Union 


------------

This was much fairer than the question proposed by the government, which had been:

Should the United Kingdom remain in the European Union?

Yes

No

-----------

The latest EU referendum opinion poll, conducted 24 to 28 March 2016 by ORB, has:

LEAVE 49%

REMAIN 51%


Last month the positions were reversed, with ORB giving Leave on 51% and Remain on 49%

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by plebgate on Sat Apr 02, 2016 12:29 pm

A lot of scaremongering about how safe we will be if we stay in Europe and create a European Army blah blah.

I think we would be a lot safer looking after ourselves with our own army and closed borders than we have been up til now.

Leave Europe and make our own laws and look after our own first with the money we will save from the money grabbers in Europe.   Stop the 12 billion plus per year foreign aid.     Borrowing that sort of money with all the cuts etc. we are all enduring doesn't make sense and in my opinion goes against The British Peoples HUMAN RIGHTS.

Can't someone in the NO campaign take the issue to the courts?

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Update 2 April. Days to go before the referendum > 82

Post by Tony Bennett on Sat Apr 02, 2016 12:38 pm

Two new polls out in the past 24 hours:

TNS has LEAVE and REMAIN both on 35% with as many as 30% undecided.

BMG Research gives a 4% lead to LEAVE with LEAVE leading on 45% and REMAIN behind with 41%, with 14% undecided.

-----

If we look at an average of the past 7 polls, all within the last fortnight, the average is:

REMAIN 51.3

LEAVE 48. 7

A lead for REMAIN of 2.6%

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Forum poll

Post by Guest on Sat Apr 02, 2016 2:32 pm

Do we have a forum poll?

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Tony Bennett on Sun Apr 03, 2016 9:08 am

Today's new EU Referendum poll is by 'Opinium', which sampled 1,988 people online.

They have:

LEAVE 43%

REMAIN 39%

Undecided: 18%.

=============

This means the last three polls have one 'dead heat' but the other two showing a 4% lead for LEAVE.

That makes the average for the last three polls (excluding the 'undecideds'):

LEAVE 51.3%

REMAIN 48.7%

or a LEAD of 2.6% for LEAVE

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Tony Bennett on Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:50 pm

Today's poll by ORB - telephone poll of 800 people - has

LEAVE 44%

REMAIN 51%

Undecided 5%

A lead of 7% for REMAIN

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by BlueBag on Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:14 am

These polls are a ridiculous waste of time.

You need information about who commissioned the poll to see the results in context.

Pollsters don't work for free.

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by plebgate on Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:28 am

I agree with Bluebag.   They got it wrong at the last election.   Money for old rope.

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Tony Bennett on Wed Apr 13, 2016 3:07 pm

The latest opinion poll, carried out amongst 2,030 people by ICM (quite a big sample) gives a clear 3% lead to  LEAVE:

LEAVE: 45%

REMAIN: 42%

Undecided: 12%


It was carried out on 9 & 10 April

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by BlueBag on Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:11 pm

@Tony Bennett wrote:The latest opinion poll, carried out amongst 2,030 people by ICM (quite a big sample) gives a clear 3% lead to  leave

There are nearly 1,000 towns and cities in the UK.

So that's 2 people polled per town and city.

Or 1 person out of every 30,000 members of the population.

Clearly a nonsense.

Polls can say whatever the person paying for them wants then to say.

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Hobs on Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:41 pm

The latest scare tactic is that if we leave the eu, it will have a serious effect on the economies of countries around the world.
We would be bad people and very selfish if we left the eu and caused people in other countries to lose their jobs or have to pay higher costs.

This is the pro eu version of The Simpsons "won't somebody think of the children?!"

sad1 sarcastic

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Europe poll

Post by willowthewisp on Thu Apr 14, 2016 12:53 pm

Seventy odd days to go Dave, time to ratchet up the loyal business leaders,IMF, Uk Bank of England chums to bolster themselves to a closer Political Union of cohorts, shown to be the most undemocratic system,Northern Ireland, Holland,(if you vote against them, they will make another vote almost compulsory for their agenda)? grouphug

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Europe poll

Post by willowthewisp on Thu Apr 14, 2016 12:55 pm

Seventy odd days to go Dave, time to ratchet up the loyal business leaders,IMF, Uk Bank of England chums to bolster themselves to a closer Political Union of cohorts, shown to be the most undemocratic system,Northern Ireland, Holland,(if you vote against them, they will make another vote almost compulsory for their agenda)? grouphug

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Richard IV on Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:09 pm

The Pros it seems have already spent £9.5 million quid of tax payers money sending out their propaganda leaflet to every household in the UK.
BTW if you want to send your leaflet back I`ve been given this address

How to return your propaganda leaflet back to Downing Street -

Joanna George
Free Post RSBB-XRZI-ZTXE
The Conservative Party Foundation
30, Millbank
LONDON SW1P 4DP

no stamp necessary

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Europe poll

Post by willowthewisp on Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:29 pm

Hi Richard IV, thanks for the address, so dodgy Dave has already spent £9.5 Million on one pamphlet, whereas the Exit campaign has only been allocated £7.5 million. These MPs really do not care whose money they're wasting, except when it comes down to sick, unemployed person, these need special attention, they don't vote for us, so**llox to erm?

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by plebgate on Wed Apr 27, 2016 8:36 am

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/664749/David-Cameron-WhatsApp-politics-European-Union-EU-referendum-Brexit

Some interesting comments especially - if the taxpayer picks up the bill for the MPs' phone then the public should be able to know what they are messaging on them.

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by Columbo on Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:20 pm

So, the referendum is fast approaching. The polls are a bit hit-and-miss and, in my personal opinion and based only on andecdotal evidence, I think they are underestimating the Leave vote. As this is a simple, one-question referendum it's easy to think the result will be straightforward. However, I think a number of scenarios could play out depending on who 'wins' and by what margin. So here, based on nothing more than my own thoughts, is what I think my happen in the event of any given result.

Remain wins by clear margin (>55%)
This would be the establishment's preferred result. It's the status quo. There'd be many disgruntled leavers and UKIPers but the result would be broadly accepted. David Cameron claims a victory for his special deal and remains as PM for now. Boris Johnson is percieved to have "shot his bolt".

Remain wins by a narrow margin (51-52%)
It's a win and the establishment will claim 'a clear mandate' despite the close result. There'll be some message about 'taking into account the strong feelings of many voters'. Leavers will be more disgruntled than above and will feel they want 'another go' sometime soon. However, unlike the Scottish referendum, there isn't a general or local election anytime soon for them to vent their feelings.

Remain wins by a very narrow margin (50.1%)
It's still a win, narrow margin or not, but a lot trickier for the establishment. There will be bitter disappointment among the Leavers and I'd expect some suggestions of missing postal votes, votes not counted and so on. A surge in support for UKIP that other parties will hope will wane by the time of any election.  There may be defections from Tory MPs to UKIP - remember Cameron has only a narrow majority. Just a dozen MPs would need to defect. One or two Labour MPs could shift allegiance too. Despite winning the result, I'd expect Cameron's position to be precarious.

Leave wins by a very narrow margin (50.1%)
It's a win for Leave, or it should be... I can't see the establishment letting such a close result rest.  I'd expect more concessions to be offered by the EU and the opportunity for us to 'think again' in another referendum later in the year. Fury from Leavers if that happens and as above a surge in UKIP support and defections much more likely. Cameron would have to go.

Leave wins by a narrow margin (51-52%)
Much as above with magnified effects. I think the EU would chuck the kitchen sink at us in terms of concessions.

Leave wins by a clear margin (>55%)
The dare to dream result as far as I'm concerned. A rocky road ahead and much negotiating to be done. A firework under domestic politics too. I wouldn't like to try and predict the outcome...

Those are just my thoughts. Comments welcome. I've mentioned the potential effects on Cameron and the Conservative party. There would no doubt be effects for Labour too, though I don't think they are as split on Europe, within the parliamentary party at least. They do, of course, have other problems of their own.

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by aquila on Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:38 pm

British citizens go the the polls. One person one vote. It's a referendum.

It will make no difference if a leave vote is overwhelmingly unanimous because there will be a get out clause for those in power to dismiss it with long discussion within the EU juggernaut about 'how we leave'. These negotiations will take at least five years by which time we shall have not left the EU and some form of political landscape will be re-manufactured.

It's a bloody pointless referendum imo as come what may, an exit vote will ultimately be ignored.

Like a faithful slave I will exercise my right to vote (exit). My vote counts for nothing in this election but I'll still cast it as I'm surrupticiously made to feel I have a choice.

Rule Britannia?

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Europe poll

Post by willowthewisp on Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:41 pm

Hi Columbo,what are your thoughts on the EU along with Elite in the UK of the effect that 27 Countries pay funds into a pot, but the funds are not distributed in an equal Ratio amongst the payees,noting that Germany was allowed to break the 3% spending rate on Euro policy in the first year of the Euro and has broken that barrier on several occasions,eg, the poorer EU members subsidise the larger partners? 
The UK Government in 2016 is pursuing the same agenda as Harold Wilson did in the 1975 referendum,using,"Fear and scare"tactics bringing out the so called big Guns,O'Bama, Mark Carney,Bank of England, various Business leaders,OEIC and several EU leaders expressing their wishes of the UK not to leave the European Union?
In fact Barack O'Bama in his Ttip references to the UK over this EU agreement(which hasn't been passed yet),is clearly stating to UK voters,vote remain as we will put you at the back of the queue?  
The USA own the Bank of England via the federal Reserve,Gold crisis,(Gordon Brown selling the Queen's Gold cheap) and only use the UK to try to manipulate agreements that are in the USA favour,which make it look as though the USA are not influencing their agenda?,
Up until a few years ago the UK was still paying off the debt to America from the second World War after nearly seventy years of payments(like a gloved puppet)?
At the end of the day this all comes down to how the Imperialists from the past have used Wars to propergate their influences in today's Economic conditions, they have all used the poorer elements from their societies to fight the Wars and ask your selves who have been the Winners, the people who were still alive after the campaigns, who were able to ride out the harshness of these Wars quite often having funds invested in Banks that lent the money to fund the Wars in the First place?
Politicians claim the forming of NATO has stopped Wars,but take a close look at the involvement of the secondary elements(United Nations) structured into the EU, that have seriously been involved in atrocities of genocide,Rwanda,Albania,Somalia and look who had funded part of these atrocities,USA for what reason, to have control over the Assets and put in place their own cohorts to run them?
So people, when the Election referendum arrives,think seriously of how the Politicians from different Governments have treated the people from your society over the past 44 years and who has benefiitted most since joining the European Union, take a long look at the jobs lost in heavy industry,manufacturing and Fisheries and how the wages of ordinary people have declined since these jobs have gone?
When the UK had decimal currency change in the 1970's,prior to it the pound was worth 240p to the pound and after only 100p?
The EU club wanted us to join the Euro and look at how that escapade cost us millions in the Conservative Government fiasco,John Major, Norman Lamont,Nigel Lawson fixing of the pound against the deutchmarc, the Elite will always look after themselves first and the general public second, consider that before you cast your vote?

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Re: *** 17,410,742 Brits (52%) vote for BREXIT on "INDEPENDENCE DAY" *** (was: E.U. REFERENDUM - The state of the polls)

Post by pennylane on Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:45 pm

@aquila wrote:British citizens go the the polls. One person one vote. It's a referendum.

It will make no difference if a leave vote is overwhelmingly unanimous because there will be a get out clause for those in power to dismiss it with long discussion within the EU juggernaut about 'how we leave'. These negotiations will take at least five years by which time we shall have not left the EU and some form of political landscape will be re-manufactured.

It's a bloody pointless referendum imo as come what may, an exit vote will ultimately be ignored.

Like a faithful slave I will exercise my right to vote (exit). My vote counts for nothing in this election but I'll still cast it as I'm surrupticiously made to feel I have a choice.

Rule Britannia?

I fear it will play out just as you have said aquila!

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The Obama effect??

Post by Tony Bennett on Tue May 03, 2016 1:33 pm

A summary of recent opinion polls on the E.U. Referendum in April  

Since I last updated members & guests, 17 opinion polls on the E.U. Referendum have been published. They divide into two groups: those conducted BEFORE President Obama addressed the nation and told us to remain (22 April), and those conducted AFTER.

The 11 polls conducted BEFORE he addressed us were full of cheer for REMAINERS.

Three of those 11 polls gave the REMAINERS leads of 10%, 11% and even 12% over the LEAVERS.

Only one put LEAVERS in the lead (by just 1%). The average lead for the REMAINERS was over 5%

BUT...

...since Obama departed from our shores...

...4 out of 6 polls show a lead for LEAVE, as follows:

22-24 Apr LEAVE AHEAD BY 2%
25-26 Apr REMAIN AHEAD BY 7%
25-26 Apr LEAVE AHEAD BY 1%
26-29 Apr REMAIN AHEAD BY 2%
26-29 Apr LEAVE AHEAD BY 3%
27-29 Apr LEAVE AHEAD BY 1%

If you average out these last six polls, and exclude the 'Don't Knows' and 'Wont' Says', the result would be an average lead for REMAIN of 0.34%, and the result would be >>>

REMAIN 50.17%
LEAVE 49.83%

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